A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
